Latest market news:
The pound ended last week as one of the worst-performing major currencies, falling 1.5% against the US Dollar and almost 1% against the Euro. The slide was triggered by weaker-than-expected UK labour data, with wage growth falling to its lowest level in four years. This has raised fresh concerns about slowing economic momentum as the UK heads into the final quarter of 2025.
Key UK data releases this week:
Markets are now highly focused on data that could influence expectations around interest rates and government policy.
Tuesday:
- Average earnings for September
- Claimant count change – how many people are claiming benefits in the UK
- Employment change
Thursday:
- GDP figures for August
- Industrial and Manufacturing production data
Business sentiment at pandemic-era lows:
The British Chambers of Commerce’s pre-Budget business survey, the largest of its kind, confirms that business confidence remains subdued. According to the Q3 Economic Survey:
- Only 48% of firms expect turnover to rise in the next 12 months
- 21% expect it to fall
- Tax is the biggest concern ahead of the Budget, closely followed by inflation
This cautious backdrop leaves sterling vulnerable to further downside if this week’s data disappoints.
Global headlines add another layer of risk:
Overnight, Hamas released seven Israeli hostages in exchange for Palestinian prisoners, while President Trump and other world leaders arrived in Israel to support peace talks. Any escalation could drive further risk-aversion, typically favouring safe-haven currencies like the dollar, which could place additional pressure on pound to dollar rates.
If you’re planning to send money abroad and want to understand more about how news from around the world could impact your budget, contact Lumon on +44 (0)204 506 5672 for a free, no-obligation conversation and discover what options you have available to help.
