Last week’s GDP results gave the pound a boost, but with inflation data, UK employment figures, and fresh geopolitical tension on the horizon, this week could see sharp moves. Here’s what’s coming and what it means for your transfers.
Latest market insights:
United Kingdom – Sterling resilience and what comes next
- Last week’s GDP figure came in at +0.3% — well ahead of the −0.2% forecast, giving Sterling a meaningful lift across the board.
- Pound to euro & pound to US dollar remain lower over the past month, but the GDP data helped sterling hold its ground going into the weekend.
- This marks positive growth in every quarter under the current government, a run of data that is supporting market confidence in the UK economy for now.
- Leadership speculation within the Labour Party is growing, with Wes Streeting, Angela Rayner (recently cleared by HMRC) and Andy Burnham (returning after nearly a decade) all being discussed.
Global – Geopolitical Risk: US–Iran tensions
- Peace deal talks between the US and Iran have stalled, with President Trump issuing renewed warnings.
- Rising tensions in the region push oil prices higher, which feeds into inflation globally and complicates central bank decisions on interest rates.
- This adds a layer of unpredictability to all this week’s data releases, particularly inflation on Wednesday.
What’s coming up:
- Tuesday: Average earnings (expected to be released), unemployment rate, and claimant count (more people claiming).
- Wednesday: UK and EU inflation, UK to drop and EU remain the same. See the effect of Iran situation and potential interest rate changes
- Thursday: Manufacturing and service sector data for UK, US, EU. EU to lag behind the other two.
- Friday: German GDP, big one to watch with German’s recent downgrade in growth.
If you have upcoming currency requirements or would like to discuss how these events could affect your plans, we’re here to help, contact Lumon on +44 (0)204 506 5672 for a free, no-obligation conversation and discover what options you have available to help.
