A cluster of key UK and Eurozone data releases this week could inject fresh volatility into the currency markets.
Latest market insights:
- German retail sales tomorrow will offer an early read on consumer strength across the Eurozone’s largest economy. This will be followed shortly by UK GDP figures at 7am which could shape expectations around when the Bank of England (BoE) may look to move on rates.
- Eurozone inflation for March is due to be published early Tuesday morning. This will include the period of heightened Middle Eastern geopolitical tension, offering the first clue on how far these developments may be effecting inflation on the continent.
- The markets will also be watching to see how ongoing geopolitical tensions could influence the UK in the months ahead, particularly with tomorrow’s latest reading of GDP in the UK. The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development has downgraded the UK’s predicted growth for 2026 from 1.2% to 0.7%, and inflation is now expected to reach 4%, up from the 2.5% forecast released in December.
- Political risk remains elevated, with Donald Trump suggesting he may consider seizing Iran’s Kharg Island, which provides a sea port for the export of up to 90% of Iran’s oil products, in a further display of force.
Key Events This Week:
United Kingdom
- Cobra meeting on Middle East impact – Monday
- Final PMI data (manufacturing & services) – Tuesday
- UK GDP figures – Tuesday
- BoE members speaking – Wednesday & Thursday
Eurozone
- Eurozone/German final PMI data – Tuesday
- Eurozone flash inflation (HICP) – Tuesday
- ECB members speaking across the week
United States
- PMI data – Tuesday
- ADP employment report – Wednesday
- ISM manufacturing – Wednesday
- Weekly jobless claims – Thursday
- Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) Friday
- Fed members delivering speeches throughout the week
(rate outlook, inflation and labour market)
If you have upcoming currency requirements or would like to discuss how these events could affect your plans, we’re here to help, contact Lumon on +44 (0)204 506 5672 for a free, no-obligation conversation and discover what options you have available to help.
