A tentative 60-day ceasefire extension between the US and Iran has pulled oil prices sharply lower, offering the first real relief from energy-driven inflation since the conflict began in February. But with the deal still awaiting President Trump’s sign-off and the Strait of Hormuz far from fully open, markets are treading carefully. A packed week of data — including US jobs figures on Friday and the eurozone flash CPI — means conditions could shift fast.
Latest market insights:
Pound to euro:
Relatively steady this week
- The pound has held firm against the euro in recent weeks, helped by the UK economy performing slightly better than much of Europe. It dipped briefly in mid-May due to some political uncertainty at home before settling back down.
- The European Central Bank is widely expected to raise interest rates on 11 June, which could give the euro a boost and put some downward pressure on this rate in the weeks ahead. Inflation figures from across Europe are due this week and will give a clearer picture of what the ECB decides to do.
- For property buyers, a 1% move on a €400,000 purchase equals €4,000 — money that comes straight off your budget. Many buyers lock in an exchange rate in advance using a forward contract, which removes the worry of rates moving against you before you complete.
US dollar to euro:
The dollar has weakened slightly, down around 0.4% over the past week
- The US dollar has lost a little ground against the euro this week. As hopes of a peace deal in the Middle East have grown, investors have felt less need to hold dollars as a safe haven. With US interest rates expected to stay on hold while European rates look set to rise, the gap between the two is narrowing — which tends to support the euro over time.
Pound to US dollar:
Broadly flat over the past two weeks
- The pound and the dollar have been fairly stable against each other recently. The big event to watch this week is the US jobs report, out on Friday. If fewer jobs were created than expected, the dollar could weaken and give the pound a lift. If the figures come in stronger, the dollar is likely to hold firm or push higher.
If you have upcoming currency requirements or would like to discuss how these events could affect your plans, we’re here to help, contact Lumon on +44 (0)204 506 5672 for a free, no-obligation conversation and discover what options you have available to help.
