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1st July 2024 | UK Election: 3 days to go…

Weekly Market Headlines:

  • French National Rally leads the first round of the French elections: The Euro has rebounded following the National Rally not performing quite as well as the polls indicated they would. All eyes are now on next Sunday‚Äôs final vote.
  • The UK General Election is just three days away: The pound will be in focus this week as the currency markets await the outcome of the General Election. All signs point to a strong Labour win, but just how big, and how will the pound react?
  • US Non-Farm Payroll numbers will round off the week: A busy week of economic data ends with the latest US labour market statistics. The news may increase the chances of a US interest rate cut this year, leading to wider moves in the FX markets.

In Depth: This Week’s Market Update

The week has started with the Euro clawing back some of its recent losses since Macron called the snap French election. The National Rally has failed to secure as much of the first-round vote as predicted, which could make winning a strong majority in the final run-off on Sunday difficult. This has seen confidence return for the Euro, as it reduces the chance of policies financial markets were concerned about.

For the UK election, all eyes will be on the extent of a Labour win. The market reaction to the French election is a good reminder that we can never totally predict what will happen and underlines the importance of being in touch with Lumon around such important events.

The week ahead contains plenty of economic data, including the latest PMI (Purchasing Managers’ Index) surveys, which provide a snapshot of current economic performance. This closely tracked data for the UK, Eurozone, and US can influence short-term movements and is well worth being aware of if you are looking at any currency trades this week.

We end the week with the result of the UK election, with the first results coming in the very early hours of Friday morning. We then end Friday with the latest US Non-Farm Payroll data, which could mean a choppy end to the week for the currency markets in general, with a focus on the pound, US dollar, and Euro.

Speak to us today if you have a currency transaction planned, to stay up to date with the latest news and trends as we receive breaking news during this major week of data and political events.

What events might move exchange rates this week?

GBP

  • Wednesday– UK Services PMI
  • Thursday – UK General Election

USD

  • Monday – US Manufacturing PMI
  • Friday – US Non-Farm Payroll data

EUR

  • Monday – ECB President Lagarde speech
  • Tuesday – Eurozone Inflation
  • Wednesday – Eurozone Services PMI